July
Migration cut no ‘silver bullet’ to Australia’s inflation problem
While economists said a tightening in immigration rules should relieve rent prices and take pressure off the labour market, it may not be enough to curb inflation.
- Joanne Tran
Inflation has no chance of hitting Chalmers’ forecasts: survey
Higher-than-expected inflation will take at least 12 months to fall anywhere near the Reserve Bank’s target, casting doubt on Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ more optimistic forecast.
- Joanne Tran
April
What Bloxham, Masters and Ong say will be in the budget
Economists surveyed by Financial Review expect government spending in the federal budget to be aimed at struggling families, but it will be small and not inflationary.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
China to miss lofty economic growth target without major stimulus
The Australian Financial Review’s survey of economists suggests growth as low as 4.2 per cent. But a reliance on iron ore will limit its effect on Australia.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Inflation set to ease, but it will be bumpy: survey
While higher prices are forecast to ease, economists warn that should inflation reignite, the RBA will stand pat on rate cuts at least for this year.
- Cecile Lefort
RBA will struggle to cut rates this year: survey
The RBA is expected to be the last major central bank to start cutting interest rates and economists predict the cash rate will remain on hold at least until November.
- Cecile Lefort
February
Here’s what the top economic forecaster predicts for 2024
Warren Hogan has been named the AFR’s best economic forecaster for 2023, after being the only economist out of 29 to accurately predict five rate rises last year.
- Cecile Lefort
Sticky inflation will haunt the RBA, say top forecasters
Persistently high services inflation may derail market expectations of an interest rate cut as early as May, according to the best economist forecasts for 2024.
- Cecile Lefort
January
Economists fear unintended consequences of the RBA overhaul
In The Australian Financial Review’s quarterly survey economists warn making the central bank more transparent could lead to slip-ups and muddle policy signals.
- Cecile Lefort
Iron ore rally bolsters $A prospects in 2024
Economists predict the Australian dollar will rise to US70¢ by the end of the year, buoyed by US rate cuts and an unexpectedly strong iron ore price.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Australia’s love affair with expensive property set to heat up
House prices will rise this year as a property shortage outweighs higher mortgage costs, according to 30 economists surveyed by The Australian Financial Review.
- Cecile Lefort
Better relations, demand for iron cushioning Australia from China woes
Improving relations between Canberra and Beijing and a strong demand for commodities will shield the economy from sluggish growth, according to a survey of 31 economists.
- Cecile Lefort
Economists say population surge key to dodging a recession this year
The Australian Financial Review’s survey of 40 economists suggests the local economy will slow to about 1 per cent this year before rebounding in 2025.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
RBA rate relief arriving in September: economist survey
A tight jobs market and stubborn inflation prompt economists to pencil in a September rate cut. But nine economists say the RBA may raise rates again next month.
- Cecile Lefort
The RBA will be ‘reluctant’ interest rate cutters
Bank of America economist Micaela Fuchila says the RBA will be reluctant to cut rates until 2025, given how long it will take to return inflation to target.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Australian economy
‘Playing with fire’ as Chalmers’ radical RBA disclosure era gets going
There is considerable disquiet over the central bank’s new era of radical disclosure. Will it improve the conduct of monetary policy or make matters worse?
- Updated
- Jacob Greber
October 2023
Economists warn Cup Day rate rise may not be RBA’s last
Thirty-three out of 35 economists polled expect an uptick and nine predict the official cash rate will peak at 4.6 per cent.
- Cecile Lefort
House price rally not sustainable, warn economists
Many have pushed back expectations that the housing supply shortage, high immigration and a peak in interest rates will continue to support property prices.
- Cecile Lefort
El Nino, fuel costs could help push rates higher, economists warn
Analysts are worried that inflation is set to accelerate from a surging oil price and the prospect of higher food prices from a hot, dry summer.
- Cecile Lefort
Economists push back RBA rate cut to August 2024
A strong job market, sticky inflation and rising oil prices have prompted economists to once again defer the timing of the first expected RBA rate cut.
- Cecile Lefort
