The power of data: Why polling is more accurate since Brexit and Trump

Polls had just closed on federal election night in 2019 when a handful of charges inside Bill Shorten’s official bash in a Melbourne hotel realised there was a problem. Against all expectations, early results from booths on the outer fringes of a southern Queensland seat were showing double-digit swings against Labor.

In a tennis club on the other side of Melbourne, the reverse was happening. Supporters of Josh Frydenberg – prepped for defeat – stood staring, slack-jawed, as flashing television screens showed more booths turning in the coalition’s favour. “It was a wake-up call,” Newgate communications boss and veteran campaigner Feyi Akindoyeni tells The Australian Financial Review Magazine, reflecting on the election, which was Australia’s instalment in a global run of spectacular polling misfires.